Given my love of football and the fact that football isn't year-round, I wanted more. The NFL Draft is a great stepping stone to get through the off-season and has become a favorite of mine (and I'm sure for you as well since you are reading this). In order to get the full effect of the draft, you need to get to know the potential prospects beforehand. That way, watching the draft live can feel like another game, with highs and lows when a prospect that you fell in love with begins to slide.
You can find limitless analysis on NFL Network, ESPN, Twitter, etc. But, I wanted more. I wanted to create my own opinions about prospects, because no analyst is perfect. No draft class is looked back without question marks. How did Russell Wilson fall all the way to the 3rd round before becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL? How did Blaine Gabbert get drafted 10th overall, but never take hold of a starting job?
My first thought was to try my hand at watching film. I had been around football for awhile. I knew a thing or two. It didn't take long for me to realize that most amateurs like myself aren't likely to outsmart those professional scouts employed by teams. Probably the most egregious opinion I had was that Geno Smith should've been taken #1 overall back in 2013 by the Chiefs because I thought he had slightly better deep ball accuracy than Robert Griffin III. So yeah, film watching wasn't going to work for me.
Recently, I turned to stats. I've always been a numbers guy and use Excel almost everyday. Could statistics tell me what I wanted to know? Is there a correlation between passing tds in college to successful qbs in the NFL? Is there a deeper analytical look that can be a predictor of future success? I took to the internet to find out.
This article (and hopefully more to come) contains my findings. The stats that I have found will never be intended to be used on their own as a predictor. Rather, these stats are another piece to add to the puzzle, as coachability, passion for the game, scheme fit, and injuries are hard to predict from an outsiders view.
With that out of the way, let's have some fun shall we?
ESPN’s QBR
The QB stat that has gotten me the most excited is the QBR from ESPN. Here is an excerpt of an explanation of QBR from ESPN:
“ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.”
Check out the full explanation here: http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating
QBR is on a scale of 0-100, so easier to read than other QB rating stats. A 5-yard gain on second-and-5 is rated very differently from a 5-yard gain on third-and-10.
Here’s some more bullet points in layman’s terms from and ESPN article posted back in 2011 (since taken down):
QBR starts with this insight: Any possession in a football game has an expected value -- the average number of points the team with possession can expect to score, based on all the historical outcomes for teams facing the same down, distance, field position and time remaining. And that means we can evaluate any play by how much it increases or decreases a team's expected point total.
QBR allocates the points added by every play in an NFL season to each of the players involved, every play. On completed passes, for example, it splits credit among QBs, receivers and blockers, depending on factors such as whether the quarterback was under duress, where he threw the ball, how far it traveled and how many yards the receiver gained after the catch. QBR splits the blame for sacks on quarterbacks and offensive linemen and attributes QB fumbles to QBs. Further, QBR weights every play by its clutch value -- its contribution to a team's chances of winning, given the score of a game, not just to scoring points.
Unfortunately, ESPN only tested their QBR stat back to 2004. So, QBs drafted in 2004 or earlier do not have a QBR applied to him. We don't have numbers for Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Peyton/Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, etc. Also, ESPN doesn't run QBR for smaller schools. So no numbers for Joe Flacco, Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz, Kyle Lauletta (2018 draft class), etc.
The former may not be a problem. The college game has evolved noticeably since 2004, when those aged guys were in college. So I don't worry much about that part. It is pretty unfortunate to not have a QBR for Garoppolo/Wentz.
2017 NFL Season
Why is the QBR relevant? Since the scope of this article is for college prospects entering the draft, let’s grab the QBs that had a notable amount of snaps in the NFL last year and their QBR from their best college season.
2017 QBs over 400 snaps
As you can see, 19 of the 24 QBs listed had a QBR of 75 or higher during their best season in college. Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, and Jay Cutler are the notable exceptions.
Not included in the above table because of injury are Andrew Luck (93.8 QBR), Sam Bradford (91.9), and Ryan Tannehill (69.7 QBR)
History
Seeing the draft profiles for starting QBs in the NFL last year wasn’t good enough for me. I needed to go test past years and see if a trend could be seen for QBs that bust after being taken in the first round, second round, and so forth.
Lots to digest here for draft classes from 2006-2015 (QBs in the last 2 years still have time to make their careers). I narrowed it down to players that were taken in the top 3 rounds. QBs taken in the later rounds mostly busted (as they should).
Starting with the second column. If you single out every QB with a QBR above 90 in their best season in college, you end up with these names: Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Johnny Manziel, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, and Pat White. That’s a pretty good list with a couple outliers. Johnny Manziel had the glaring wart of maturity issues. Probably the highest concern out of any first round prospect in many years. Pat White on the other hand, never threw for more than 1,800 yards in a season during college (which is lowest on this list). Obviously no prospect is perfect, but you could see the risk involved with those two. The remaining 6 on this list are all projected to be starters heading into 2018. That gives us a 75% success rate (25% bust rate). If I’m deciding between prospects in the first round, I like the odds of selecting a quarterback who had a QBR above 90.
Note: no QB with a QBR above 90 was taken after the 3rd round.
Moving on to column three. The one I’ve labeled “Maybe”. Here is listed the quarterbacks that had at least one season with a QBR between 75-90. This is the QBR that most starters in the NFL have. As you can see, it is very hit and miss. Andy Dalton and Matt Stafford headline the starters here. Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr still can make a nice career. Colin Kaepernick and Mark Sanchez had a few decent years. But, for every successful QB, there is a bust. You may disagree with some of my opinions. I may be too high or too low on a few guys, but the fact remains. Starters in this range can be found, but a fair amount of busts can as well. So do your homework.
Finally, the fourth column and the list that I’ve labeled “Do not draft”. Here we see all QBs that never had a QBR above 75 while in college. Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill, and Nick Foles make this list. That’s it. Everyone else was a bust. Out of 19 players, 4 have been at least a solid starter. That gives us a 79% bust rate. I don’t know about you, but I don’t like those odds when spending high draft capital on a QB.
Note: If you are interested in seeing QBRs of QBs that were drafted in the past 2 years, I’ll list those at the end of the article.
2018 Draft Class
Let’s take what we’ve learned and apply it to the 2018 Draft class. Who should we be putting #1 on our board and who should we be steering clear of?
Now, keep in mind that the history we looked at above were for any player taken in the top 3 rounds. Obviously many of these QBs will be taken after round 3. Also, Kyle Lauletta from Richmond is from a smaller school and ESPN didn’t run a QBR on him. So we'll have an incomplete take of him.
Ok. So as you can see Baker Mayfield leads the bunch with a 92.6 QBR in his best season. Better yet, Baker had a 90+ QBR each of his past 2 seasons. No QB has ever accomplished that. He even had an 80 QBR during his Sophomore season. These stats make me feel very confident that Baker Mayfield will be one of the successful QBs to come from this draft. I want to caution that a 90+ QBR hasn't necessarily shown to be a predictor of being the best of the best in the NFL, just that chances of being successful are much higher.
I think a good comparison for Baker Mayfield is Russell Wilson. Both had a QBR over 90 and had questions about their height (although Baker came in over the magical 6’0” at the combine). Now, Russell Wilson is one of the best QBs in the NFL. Even with a 90 QBR, Russell’s success is probably closer to a ceiling for Baker than a floor. But, that type of success isn't nearly as far fetched for Baker than it is for any other of these QBs.
Moving on to the other notable QBs mentioned in the first round. Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, and Mason Rudolph fall into the 75-90 QBR range. As we mentioned before, you can find starters here, but many bust as well.
Lamar Jackson may be the most interesting one here as he is an electrifying runner as well. A fair amount of his QBR came from plays he extended with his legs. ESPN splits out the expected points added (EPA) from runs vs EPA from passing plays. Two of Lamar’s seasons ranked in the top 5 seasons of any QBs in terms of Run EPA (Other QBs were Johnny Manziel, Quinton Flowers of USF, and Nick Fitzgerald of MSST). So yes, Lamar absolutely made plays with his legs.
The other side of the coin shows that while half of his QBR came from his running, “only” half came from his passing. The NFL is possibly transitioning to offenses more suited to running able QBs. As it has been up to now, the more EPA from passing a prospect has, the better. Lamar’s passing EPA is below guys like Manziel, Mariota, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick, but above guys like Dak Prescott, Pat White, Vince Young, and Braxton Miller.
Putting all of this together, I think it's very reasonable to compare Lamar to Kaepernick. Needless to say, Lamar will need a coach that plays to his strengths. He's an exceptional athlete nonetheless.
Wow, we're at 2,000 words. I'll try to finish this up quickly.
Sam Darnold and Mason Rudolph are the other two in this 75-90 QBR range. Basically, their chances of being a long term starter in the NFL is about 50/50. Just a guess, but landing spot might be even more important for these QBs than QBs with 90 QBR in college. So, after Baker, I would be targeting Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, or Mason Rudolph in the first round if I was with a team in need of a QB.
Finally, we get to the last two QBs that have been mentioned in the first round. Josh Allen and Josh Rosen. Both of these QBs never had a season with a QBR above 75. That does not look good for these two QBs. Yes, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, and Jay Cutler all had around a 70 QBR in their best season in college. But, guys like Jake Locker and Josh Freeman who busted after being taken in the first can be explained away by seeing that they never had a QBR above 70. If you are thinking that there won’t be more than 3-4 long term starters that come out of first round of this draft, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen are the two most likely not to make that list.
Just to touch a bit on the other QBs, the QBR really doesn’t give much of an indicator for prospects taken outside of round 3. Quinton Flowers and J.T. Barrett (whose best QBR came from his freshman year) did post some pretty decent QBRs at 87.1 and 86.3 respectively. They seem to be more of that “running” QB you hear about and earned just as many running EPA as they did passing. If the league does convert to offenses that allow for more QB running, these guys could find a nice backup job.
There is a handful of QBs with QBRs above 75 projected to go in the later rounds. As expected you might as well throw a dart to guess who could become successful out of that group. If any one of these QBs goes by round 3, they may be a nice sleeper.
Conclusion
So there you have it. Baker Mayfield is a QB prospect that doesn’t come around every year. A combination of Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, and Mason Rudolph could make this draft class compare favorably to past draft classes with multiple long term starters. Josh Allen and Josh Rosen are the likely busts to come from this class.
If you’ve made it this far, I applaud you. Hopefully you enjoy this stuff as much as I do. I plan to write an article about RBs and a stat that can help divide up those prospects. So be on the lookout for that!
2016-2017 Draft Class
I didn’t include the last two draft classes above, because we have yet to get a perfectly clear read on these QBs. Here they are
By Austin Goering
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