This league is an ever-changing one. Football is a sport that continually evolves as the years go by. Due to innovation, rule changes, and even by chance, the game we see today is quite different from the one played 30-40 years ago. We tackle differently. We move the ball differently. Heck, we even kick the ball differently.
“What’s Trending” is a new segment on the podcast where we look into different themes, trends, and even just general beliefs held around the NFL. A couple weeks ago, I looked at draft classes that saw a large number of quarterbacks go in the first round. This week I turned my attention to running backs and how, in contrast to QBs, less and less seem to be taken early in the draft.
First, I wanted to start out by seeing if this was merely a conception held by many in and around the league, or if it was real trend happening across the NFL. I began by looking up all RBs taken in the first round over the last 30 years. Broken down by decade, a clear pattern appears. In the last 10 years (2008-2017), there have been 20 RBs taken in the first round of the draft. In the decade before that (1998-2007), there were 30 RBs taken in the first round. And there were 39 first round RBs drafted over the course of the decade prior to that (1988-1997). So as you can see, over each of the last 3 decades less RBs a drafted in the first round. Further evidence of this is that no RBs were taken in the first round of either the 2013 or 2014 drafts, the only two drafts that happened in the last 30 years.
So given that this is an actual trend happening, we then can talk about why this is the case. After talking with my fellow Practice Guys, as well as looking to see what others’ opinions were, I came up with four principle reasons that less RBs are being drafted in the first round than ever before. Some of these reasons overlap a bit, and I’m sure there are numerous others out there, but these are the main four that I found.
The Money
When it’s all boiled down, the NFL is a business first and foremost. And like any other business, it’s always about the $$$. When the rookie pay scale was implemented, the whole reasoning behind it was rookies should not be paid top-tier money before having played a single snap in the league. And while the rookie pay scale amended that in most cases, it did not exactly do that for the running back position. Right now, we have two rookie deals that are in the Top 10 salaries in the league (Elliott and Fournette). And so teams do not want to draft a RB in the first round because they don’t want to pay top tier money for a rookie.
Looking at the table above, we can see how strange the RB market is. Not a lot of money is invested in RBs when compared to other premier positions, but the most of the money that is invested has been largely questionable decisions. I think most would agree with me that players like Jerrick McKinnon, Giovanni Bernard, and Latavias Murray should not be paid like Top 10 RBs. So the issues with the RB market are from top to bottom and not just with rookie deals. But consider this: youth matters more at the RB position than any other position in football. Numerous stats have shown that a running back has hit his peak production by age 27. So if you are going to invest Top 10 money at running back, wouldn’t you rather invest it in a much younger player? It’s much easier to make the case that Ezekiel Elliott (age 22) deserves to be on that list than Carlos Hyde (age 27).
Later Round Talent
Now I know what you’re thinking. You can still draft a young guy and not have to pay them top tier money. It’s possible to find talented RBs in the later rounds of the draft that can still make a large impact, but without the large financial commitment. And that is true. The NFL’s 2017 rushing leader, Kareem Hunt, was a rookie drafted in the 3rd round. Alvin Kamara was also drafted in the 3rd round and made the Pro Bowl. Dalvin Cook looked like a stud for the Vikings before injury derailed his season. With talent like this available teams believe they can focus on other needs in the first round and address the running back position later in the draft.
But while there is still talent to be found in the later rounds of the draft, quite simply your odds of finding it is not very good. In 2017, there were 24 running backs selected after the first round. And while guys like Hunt, Kamara, and Cook make the headlines, countless others failed to make a significant impact with their teams. This stands in contrast to both first round picks from a year ago (Fournette, McCaffery), who each went over 1,000 yards from scrimmage in their rookie campaigns.
High Bust Rate
Related to that last point, many indicate the high bust rate of RBs as another reason to avoid drafting the position in the first round. And once again, there is certainly a basis for this line of thinking. I looked specifically at RBs drafted in the first round over the last 10 years, and based on my personal opinion of players I found there to be roughly a 50% bust rate. This seems to be fairly consistent with what others have found in their research. That would give the RB position one of the highest bust rates of any position in the first round. Look at the table below and you’ll see it was practically impossible to find a successful RB in the first round from 2009-2012.
But as I’ve already discussed, it becomes even harder to find “starter quality” players in the later rounds of the draft. And while a 50% bust rate seems bad in comparison to other positions, it’s only going to climb in each of the later rounds. So it is best to pick your guy early, unless of course you don’t put much value in having a successful starting running back, which leads us to the final point.
The Devaluation of Rushing
As I stated at the beginning of this article, football is an evolving sport. And every year we become further removed from the time when it was a sport that revolved around “pounding the rock.” Today, passing is king. I couldn’t count the number of times I’ve heard the phrase “It’s a passing league” (which mostly speaks to my poor, hicktown education). And with the rise of throwing the football, we have seen a decline in the commitment to running the football. Indeed, there are even stats which show there is no direct link between rushing efficiency and overall offensive success (which I won’t dive into as this is already getting longer than I expected).
However, just because teams may no longer believe it is necessary to “run to set up the pass”, that does not mean that running the football (and the running back) cannot still be a key part of a team’s success. If you look at a list of the top 10 offenses from a year ago, you’ll find some interesting connections. First, 6 of the top 10 offenses were also in the top 10 in rushing yards (NE, PHI, NO, LAR, KC, JAX). Secondly, you may notice that both teams that played in this year’s Super Bowl had a top 10 rushing offense. I don’t believe that is coincidence. Running backs still play an important role in team success. And while the “RB committee” approach is certainly a popular one, keep in mind that 4 out of the 5 rushing leaders were on Top 10 Offenses.
We’ve seen almost a complete reversal in the league with how teams and coaches view rushing vs passing. The infusion of the spread offense into the NFL now has people thinking that you need to pass to set up the run which is a complete 180 degrees from what was believed even 20 years ago. But this does not mean that running backs should be viewed as less valuable in football today. As football changes, so does the way we evaluate RBs need to change. Perhaps we are no longer looking for the Larry Johnson type players to run the ball 416 carries in a season. And though there has been a trend of less RBs drafted in the first round, I would think we see that trend reverse in the years to come as the league adjusts to a different style of running back.
By Jordan Schrag
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